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    NCR Voyix (VYX)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$12.62Last close (May 8, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$12.99Open (May 9, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.37(+2.93%)
    • Strong Margin Expansion in Key Segments: The company expects sustained strong margins in both the restaurant and digital banking segments, with the restaurant segment margins at 26%-27% for the full year , and digital banking margins improving to approximately 39% for the full year, up about 1% year-over-year.
    • Consistent ARR Growth and Customer Retention: The company is experiencing consistent growth in software and total ARR across all three segments, supporting confidence in their strategy. Additionally, they have strong customer retention, with over 90% contract renewal rates in digital banking and successful addition of net new customers, particularly in enterprise markets.
    • Improving Financial Leverage and Free Cash Flow: The company is focused on reducing net leverage to approximately 3.4x by year-end and under 3x over time, supported by strong free cash flow generation and improving free cash flow conversion rates. Decreasing cash costs related to restructuring and separation, along with interest reductions from decreasing debt, are expected to further enhance free cash flow.
    • Declining Hardware Revenue: The company's hardware revenue is declining due to the timing of customer refresh cycles and the lumpiness of project-driven hardware sales. Although management expects the decline to moderate in the second half, there is uncertainty about the recovery of hardware projects, which are important contributors to revenue.
    • High Leverage Levels: The company has a net leverage of 3.9x, with plans to reduce it to approximately 3.4x by year-end and eventually below 3x. High leverage poses financial risks, and the pace of deleveraging depends on free cash flow generation, which may be impacted by ongoing costs and investments.
    • Ongoing Transformation Costs Impacting Cash Flow: The company incurred $32 million of expenses in the first quarter associated with transformation and restructuring initiatives, including severance and other exit costs related to rightsizing the cost base. These costs adversely impact cash flow, and while expected to decrease over time, they may continue to affect free cash flow in the near term.
    1. Revenue and EBITDA Outlook
      Q: How should we think about revenue and EBITDA cadence?
      A: Management expects revenue and adjusted EBITDA to sequentially improve throughout the year, with the hardware decline moderating in the second half based on project recoveries. They reaffirmed full-year guidance, anticipating revenue and EBITDA growth as cost transformation initiatives ramp up.

    2. Digital Banking Monetization Plans
      Q: Are there updates on plans to monetize the digital banking asset?
      A: The digital banking business is performing well, with strong growth and underappreciated value. While focused on operational execution, management continues to explore opportunities to maximize shareholder value, including potential monetization of the digital banking asset.

    3. Hardware Outlook and 2025 Expectations
      Q: Will the hardware decline moderate in 2025 as previously stated?
      A: Management believes that hardware projects recovering in the back half of this year support expectations of a more moderate decline in 2025. They continue to see a strong pipeline, reaffirming prior comments about hardware performance stabilizing next year.

    4. Transformation Initiatives and Costs
      Q: Will the transformation initiatives lead to incremental costs going forward?
      A: The $100 million cost-out program is underway, with $70 million benefits expected this year and $30 million next year. Total transformation and restructuring costs are estimated at $80 to $90 million for the year, including severance and real estate optimization, consistent with free cash flow guidance.

    5. Leverage and Free Cash Flow Trends
      Q: What's the outlook on net leverage and free cash flow conversion?
      A: The company aims to reduce net leverage to about 3.4x by year-end and eventually to 3x or under. Free cash flow conversion is expected to improve beyond this year's 25% to 28%, aided by reduced interest expenses and steady capital expenditures.

    6. ARR Trends
      Q: What should we expect for ARR trends across software and total ARR?
      A: Management is pleased with growth in software and total ARR, reflecting confidence in their strategy. Sequential ARR growth is expected across all three businesses, supported by new customer additions and monetization of their large install base.

    7. Restaurant Segment Margin Expansion
      Q: Is the mid-to-high 20% margin in the restaurant segment sustainable?
      A: Management expects restaurant segment margins to continue in the 26% to 27% range for the full year, indicating that the current margin expansion is sustainable going forward.

    8. Digital Banking Margin and Revenue Outlook
      Q: Will digital banking margins continue to expand?
      A: Yes, digital banking margins are expected to improve, reaching approximately 39% for the full year, up about 1% year-over-year. Revenue growth will be driven by both user growth and ARPU expansion.

    9. Customer Attrition Rates in Segments
      Q: How are customer attrition rates trending across segments?
      A: Customer retention remains strong, especially in enterprise segments for retail and restaurants. Digital banking renewals exceed 90%, with normal attrition in smaller customers. Overall attrition trends are consistent with historical norms.

    10. Pricing Trends and Net Positive Price Capture
      Q: Are you net positive in price capture across segments?
      A: Management is experiencing net positive price capture in all three segments. While digital banking renewals typically see price compression, this has been improving over past quarters, and they are successfully implementing CPI-related price increases across businesses.

    11. Self-Checkout Demand Amid Concerns
      Q: How is demand for self-checkout amid negative headlines?
      A: Despite headlines and legislative proposals to reduce self-checkout, consumer demand for unassisted checkout remains strong. Management believes the trend will continue, driven by consumer preferences for technology-driven solutions, and continues to see strong interest from retailers and restaurants.

    12. Hardware Environment and Self-Checkout Demand
      Q: What's happening in the hardware environment and self-checkout?
      A: The hardware business is project-driven and lumpy, with projects returning in the back half of the year. Demand for self-checkout remains strong, shifting towards unassisted checkout solutions like mobile devices and kiosks, leading to higher software and services revenue as hardware prices decline.

    13. Restaurant Expansions and Sales Cycles
      Q: Are restaurant expansions pacing as expected, and how long are sales cycles?
      A: Expansions are progressing as planned, with positive customer conversations. Sales cycles vary: 3–6 months for small to midsize segments and 6–12 months for larger enterprises. Demand centers on API capabilities unlocked by the platform.

    14. Platform Conversions and Client Adoption
      Q: What are you seeing with platform conversions and new client adoption?
      A: All new customers are onboarding directly onto the platform, with platform sites increasing to 61,000, about 18% of the base. Existing clients are converting ahead of refresh cycles to access new capabilities and enhance guest experiences.

    15. Customer Adds Metrics Context
      Q: How does the nearly 300 customer additions compare historically?
      A: The number of customer additions is consistent with expectations and past performance. There's increased focus on sales and new customer acquisition, with positive trends in digital banking and ongoing strength in customer expansions.

    16. Future Cash Costs and Free Cash Flow Impact
      Q: How will cash costs in 2025 affect free cash flow profile?
      A: Transformation and separation costs are expected to decline over time, aiding free cash flow. Reduced interest expenses from lower debt levels and steady capital expenditures will also contribute to improved free cash flow in the future.

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